recently completed a project for a major mining company which wanted to enhance their approach to understanding the long-term dynamics of the dry bulk freight. They were particularly interested in better understanding environmental legislation in shipping and how the decarbonisation of the industry will impact the freight markets. The project scope included:
- A detailed overview of the structure of the dry bulk carrier market, including a comprehensive assessment of the market’s demand- and supply-side drivers, market balances and MSI’s base case forecasts.
- A comprehensive overview of emissions targets at the international, national and industry levels and detailed introduction to green shipping regulatory frameworks, including technical, operational and market-based approaches.
- Decarbonisation options available to shipowners, with a particular emphasis on EST, operational pathways and alternative fuels. An overview of alternative fuel contracting in the sector, with details on routes taken by all the major mining companies.
- Conducted extensive interviews with stakeholders across the shipping industry, including ship owners/operators, financiers and shipyards to better understand preferred pathways forward and associated issues (cost, technical difficulties, risk, etc).
Also included were a review of the status of the shipbuilding industry’s available capacity, the retrofit option for alternative fuels, including uptake, costs and return on investment and the newbuild option for alternative fuels and factors that impact its commercial feasibility including CAPEX, fuel pricing, carbon pricing, etc.
MSI created a bespoke interactive forecasting model that allows for long-term fundamental forecasting through scenario-building.
Given the scale of the project, MSI developed a multi-stage series of deliverables in close cooperation with the client. The first deliverable was an interactive Excel-based forecasting model that allowed the client to run their own analysis of long-term dry bulk freight market supply and demand fundamentals through forecast scenario-building.
MSI also ran a workshop with the client and prepared a series of instructional videos to ensure the client understood how to best use the system. The second deliverable was a series of independent market studies on the topics detailed above.
Reports were provided in PowerPoint, with all supporting graphs and data in Excel. MSI also held workshops for each of the market studies to take the client through key findings and answer any outstanding questions.
To learn how MSI’s Consultancy Services can help your business understand and profit from market dynamics in shipping, offshore and shipbuilding, please get in touch.
