MSI’s latest scenario modelling asks what happens to Gulf tanker trades when Strait of Hormuz access shifts from disruption to prolonged denial.
The effect on tanker markets from the US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s subsequent retaliation, while extreme and spectacular, was somewhat predictable, with a rate spike following similar patterns to previous geopolitical shocks around the Middle East, according to MSI director Tim Smith. Read more at Riviera.
The sector has surprised to the upside in Q1 – can the market manage downside risks to post more gains in 2026 asks Will Fray, a director at MSI. Read more at Splash247.com.
The world’s LNG supply outlook darkened sharply last night after Iran struck key gas infrastructure in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, escalating the regional conflict and raising the prospect of prolonged disruption to one of the market’s most critical production hubs.
The impact on shipping could be mitigated by more long-haul LNG trade from the Atlantic Basin to Asia, MSI’s Buckland said, which would increase average voyage lengths.
“But this won’t be enough to make up for the loss in shipping demand that no, or reduced, Qatari exports will cause,” he said. Read more at Lloyds List.
With Capesize earnings expected to remain firm, the strength of the Cape market is likely to continue to support Panamax freight rates. A key driver of this continued correlation will be competition on major coal routes that still employ both Cape and Panamax tonnage. Read more at Hellenic Shipping News.
“When viewed in aggregate, both Asia-North Europe and Asia-US west coast spot freight rates have fallen in the region of 15% over the past month. Most of this fall can be ascribed to seasonal trends around the lunar new year, although further rates declines are expected to be more heavily driven by overcapacity.” said analysts at MSI. Read more at The Loadstar.
Analysts see a US Supreme Court ruling against US President Donald Trump’s tariffs as positive for container trades in the short term.
MSI director Daniel Richards told Riviera that any tariffs introduced under the IEEPA are now invalid. “All other tariffs implemented since January 2025, including those targeting the steel, aluminium, copper, automotive and lumber sectors, remain in place,” he explained.
According to Mr Richards, the situation for many individual countries is now murky – particularly for those that have negotiated trade agreements with the US over the past year. Read more at Riviera.
MSI cites a number of factors driving the large tanker sector including a build up of floating storage and Sinokor’s aggressive moves to acquire and control VLCC tonnage, which has been estimated to control 24% of the spot trading fleet. “Sinokor is reportedly already withholding its VLCC tonnage in order to push rates up further.” The squeeze on the market is exacerbated by the proportion of the VLCC fleet that is either sanctioned or part of the dark fleet. Read more at Seatrade.
On the supply side, the global container shipping fleet grew by 7 percent in 2025, outpacing demand growth of 5 percent MSI forecasts fleet growth of 3.5 percent in 2026, compared to just 2 percent demand growth. Read more at Breakbulk News.
The demographic sweetspot for China, the 21st century’s driving force of shipping profits, has long passed. This month, Beijing reported its steepest birth rate decline since the Communist Party took power in 1949. Splash Extra investigates what a dwindling population means for global shipping.
Adam Kent, managing director at MSI, explains to Splash Extra that with the population in decline, demand for new property and infrastructure will slow as economic growth slows, with a greater focus on services rather than goods as the population ages.
“This raises the question of whether we expect another ‘China’ to emerge to replace lost shipping demand. India is often cited as the most obvious candidate, given that its population has now surpassed China’s,” Kent says. Read more at Splash247.com.
Strategic and economic shifts by South Korean builders are designed to counter China’s orderbook dominance, writes Stuart Nicoll, director, MSI. Read more at Xinde Marine.
