With Capesize earnings expected to remain firm, the strength of the Cape market is likely to continue to support Panamax freight rates. A key driver of this continued correlation will be competition on major coal routes that still employ both Cape and Panamax tonnage. Read more at Hellenic Shipping News.
Carriers hope blankings and post-CNY boost can bolster rates
“When viewed in aggregate, both Asia-North Europe and Asia-US west coast spot freight rates have fallen in the region of 15% over the past month. Most of this fall can be ascribed to seasonal trends around the lunar new year, although further rates declines are expected to be more heavily driven by overcapacity.” said analysts at MSI. Read more at The Loadstar.
US tariff tussle: supply chain disruption, trade deal uncertainty and shipping impacts
Analysts see a US Supreme Court ruling against US President Donald Trump’s tariffs as positive for container trades in the short term.
MSI director Daniel Richards told Riviera that any tariffs introduced under the IEEPA are now invalid. “All other tariffs implemented since January 2025, including those targeting the steel, aluminium, copper, automotive and lumber sectors, remain in place,” he explained.
According to Mr Richards, the situation for many individual countries is now murky – particularly for those that have negotiated trade agreements with the US over the past year. Read more at Riviera.
Red hot VLCC market hits new highs amid US – Iran tensions
MSI cites a number of factors driving the large tanker sector including a build up of floating storage and Sinokor’s aggressive moves to acquire and control VLCC tonnage, which has been estimated to control 24% of the spot trading fleet. “Sinokor is reportedly already withholding its VLCC tonnage in order to push rates up further.” The squeeze on the market is exacerbated by the proportion of the VLCC fleet that is either sanctioned or part of the dark fleet. Read more at Seatrade.
Container Shipping Faces Perfect Storm as Trade Growth Slows and Fleet Capacity Surges in 2026
On the supply side, the global container shipping fleet grew by 7 percent in 2025, outpacing demand growth of 5 percent MSI forecasts fleet growth of 3.5 percent in 2026, compared to just 2 percent demand growth. Read more at Breakbulk News.
China’s demographic cliff: can shipping live without its golden growth engine?
The demographic sweetspot for China, the 21st century’s driving force of shipping profits, has long passed. This month, Beijing reported its steepest birth rate decline since the Communist Party took power in 1949. Splash Extra investigates what a dwindling population means for global shipping.
Adam Kent, managing director at MSI, explains to Splash Extra that with the population in decline, demand for new property and infrastructure will slow as economic growth slows, with a greater focus on services rather than goods as the population ages.
“This raises the question of whether we expect another ‘China’ to emerge to replace lost shipping demand. India is often cited as the most obvious candidate, given that its population has now surpassed China’s,” Kent says. Read more at Splash247.com.
Shipyard capacity surges but relocation will increasingly take centre stage
Strategic and economic shifts by South Korean builders are designed to counter China’s orderbook dominance, writes Stuart Nicoll, director, MSI. Read more at Xinde Marine.
Shipping markets outlook for H1 2026 – Podcast
2025 was a year like no other for shipping buffeted by US tariffs, trade wars, and geopolitical conflicts but through it all markets across most major sectors performed remarkably well.
Going into 2026 there seems to be no let up with the US military action in Venezuela with days of the New Year, so what does the rest of the coming 12 months have to offer the world of shipping?
Find out the views of the experts from MSI Ltd by listening to the podcast at Seatrade Maritime.
2025 in dry bulk: balancing fragile trade and fleet expansion
Dry bulk owners navigated uneven 2025 trade, a growing orderbook and tighter expectations for safety, vetting and data integrity.
MSI highlighted the role of Guinean bauxite in that late-year strength, noting exports were up 35% year-on-year for January to August. Read more at Riviera.
How to spend it in 2026
According to a new report from Fitch Ratings, next year will still be challenging due to a myriad of geopolitical and policy risks. Shipping will also be hit by the lower GDP growth expected across most major economies in 2026 compared to 2025.
Adam Kent, managing director at MSI, agrees with several aspects of this report and believes that the circling geopolitical winds will continue to impact markets into 2026.
“These forces, coupled with asset prices that remain relatively high and stubbornly sticky against a volatile earnings backdrop, make choosing a sector to invest in over the next 12 months more challenging than usual,” he explains to Splash Extra. Read more at Splash247.com