China’s demographic cliff: can shipping live without its golden growth engine?

The demographic sweetspot for China, the 21st century’s driving force of shipping profits, has long passed. This month, Beijing reported its steepest birth rate decline since the Communist Party took power in 1949. Splash Extra investigates what a dwindling population means for global shipping.

Adam Kent, managing director at MSI, explains to Splash Extra that with the population in decline, demand for new property and infrastructure will slow as economic growth slows, with a greater focus on services rather than goods as the population ages.

“This raises the question of whether we expect another ‘China’ to emerge to replace lost shipping demand. India is often cited as the most obvious candidate, given that its population has now surpassed China’s,” Kent says. Read more at Splash247.com.

Shipping markets outlook for H1 2026 – Podcast

2025 was a year like no other for shipping buffeted by US tariffs, trade wars, and geopolitical conflicts but through it all markets across most major sectors performed remarkably well.

Going into 2026 there seems to be no let up with the US military action in Venezuela with days of the New Year, so what does the rest of the coming 12 months have to offer the world of shipping?

Find out the views of the experts from MSI Ltd by listening to the podcast at Seatrade Maritime.

How to spend it in 2026

According to a new report from Fitch Ratings, next year will still be challenging due to a myriad of geopolitical and policy risks. Shipping will also be hit by the lower GDP growth expected across most major economies in 2026 compared to 2025.

Adam Kent, managing director at MSI, agrees with several aspects of this report and believes that the circling geopolitical winds will continue to impact markets into 2026.

“These forces, coupled with asset prices that remain relatively high and stubbornly sticky against a volatile earnings backdrop, make choosing a sector to invest in over the next 12 months more challenging than usual,” he explains to Splash Extra. Read more at Splash247.com

Year-end dry bulk rally collides with overcapacity

Two-year high bulker earnings contrast with accelerating fleet growth, muted scrapping and Chinese stockbuilding that raises doubts over how long the rally could last.

MSI argued that much of this strength was driven by temporary stockbuilding and pointed out elevated inventories in China, combined with the usual Lunar New Year slowdown, were expected to weigh on imports in early 2026. Read more at Riviera.

War-distorted tanker boom faces reset

Disrupted crude flows, sanctions and floating storage sustained exceptional tanker earnings in late 2025.

Crude tanker earnings held near cycle highs in late November, even as analysts began to ask whether a prospective ’peace dividend’ in Ukraine could erode some of the structural support behind tonne-mile demand.

MSI’s latest HORIZON Monthly for oil tankers reported benchmark VLCC spot earnings averaged US$101,000/day in the first two weeks of November, up from US$78,000/day in October. Read more at Riviera.