After three torrid years of low profitability, a combination of falling costs and rising prices put yards on a stronger footing, writes Stuart Nicoll from MSI. Read more at Splash247.com
The trajectory of newbuild prices which have soared up by as much as 50% in less than three years is dividing experts with owners facing tricky decisions on when to kickstart fleet renewal programmes ahead of stricter 2030 green targets for shipping agreed at the International Maritime Organization this July.
MSI believes that newbuild prices might finally cool down over the next couple of years, a point of view not widely shared with shipbroking houses. Read more at Splash247.com
Tim Smith of MSI considers how changes in global energy consumption out to 2050 might impact global shipping demand. He also addresses the oft-mooted issue of ‘stranded assets’ in the context of the energy transition. Could ships become obsolete – from a technological and regulatory standpoint – before their assumed 25-year lifespan? Listen at ship.energy
A carbon tax is essential to helping the shipping market price next generation vessel earnings and asset values, says MSI. Read more at TradeWinds
LNG bunker price expected to start trading at a substantial discount to low-sulphur fuel from 2024, helping create a premium for charter ships burning the fuel. For dual-fuel methanol ships, the picture is less clear even with shipping included into the EU ETS, as the price for green methanol would be significantly higher, according to MSI. Read more at Lloydslist
Mothballed capacity is being brought back to life as contracting is forecast to rise. “Expansion in capacity will certainly be needed in the second half of the decade, when we expect a surge in contracting volumes in response to the twin requirements of fleet renewals and decarbonisation efforts,” says MSI director Stuart Nicoll. Read more at TradeWinds
Demand for alternative fuel newbuildings will spur expansion of shipbuilding capacity, including bringing some of the collapsed yards back to life. But the boom seen in the 2000s, which later led to severe overcapacity problems, is unlikely to be repeated. The bounceback will mainly be led by demand for fresh tonnage using alternative marine fuels, especially those in the dry bulker and tanker sectors, said MSI managing director Adam Kent during a Sea Asia shipbuilding outlook seminar. Read more at Lloydslist
A huge part of the world fleet will have to be replaced with zero-emission vessels in little more than two decades if regulators set a goal of decarbonising shipping by 2050. “Based on the evidence to date, it seems likely that most shipyards will make the step up in capability to meet demand for new green technologies, especially as the technology matures and becomes commodified,” says MSI director Stuart Nicoll. Read more at TradeWinds
The shipping industry has faced new challenges over the past 12 months due to higher funding costs following the rise in interest rates.
MSI’s Managing Director, Dr Adam Kent, contributes his thoughts on the topic in an article published by Naftemporiki
“We expect to see the tide turn on scrapping volumes this year with 2023 already starting off at a steady pace,” predicted Dr Adam Kent, MSI’s managing director. This is primarily driven by containership and dry bulk removals. Read more at SplashExtra